It was only a matter of time before US President Donald Trump picked up on claims made during his previous term that Christians are being persecuted in the West African nation. And when he did, tensions quickly escalated.
The wreckage of a dormitory destroyed by Boko Haram fighters at the Chibok girls secondary school. Photographer: Laurie Churchman/AFP/Getty Images
From declaring Nigeria a “country of particular concern” to hinting at possible military intervention, Trump has saddled Tinubu with the dual challenges of engaging with a mercurial ally and tackling a myriad of insecurity problems.
Successive Nigerian governments have tried and failed to deal with widespread violence across Africa’s most-populous nation.
There’s a thriving kidnapping industry, Islamist-extremist violence in the northeast, secessionist conflict in the east, armed motorcycle-riding bandits in the northwest and clashes between herders and grain farmers in the central region.
But contrary to the US leader’s claims, armed groups and criminals seldom distinguish between religions when choosing their victims.
The Tinubu administration’s approach to restoring security has, indeed, been lackluster so far.
Police have been largely ineffective and the army, stretched thin fighting across the country, has been hampered by corruption among its senior ranks and inadequate equipment and training.
WATCH: Bloomberg anchor Jennifer Zabasajja reports on Trump’s threats against Nigeria.
Washington is a key economic partner for Nigeria and potential source of the advanced weaponry it needs to take on the armed groups.
Tinubu will have to persuade the White House it’s in the US’s best interests to work together and that claims of Christians being targeted are false. That’s a tall order given Trump’s typically unshakeable resolve — as South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has also had to fend off false genocide claims, can testify.
Tinubu’s measured response shows he’s been taking notes.
He’s likely to seek US support in his battle against the insurgents and criminals, while trying to dissuade Trump from dispatching troops or ordering air strikes.
He may also offer sweeteners by granting American firms access to Nigeria’s untapped minerals and reconsider his previous rejection of Washington’s request to take in undocumented migrants.
While pacifying Trump may be a bitter pill to swallow, like leaders the world over, Tinubu may find his options severely limited.
Centre for Nigeria Progress 