We lived through a rupture. For a few dizzying years, the familiar rhythms of global life—the daily commute, the crowded stadium, the handshake, the very breath we shared in a room—were suspended. Covid-19 was not merely a health crisis; it was a planetary pause button, a “once in a generation global shutdown” that touched every facet of human existence. From the way we work and learn to how we grieve and connect, nothing was spared.
And yet, as the immediate threat recedes, a curious and dangerous consensus has emerged among voters and politicians alike: the expectation that the economy should, and will, snap back to its pre-pandemic shape without any lasting pain. This is a profound delusion, a collective denial of the seismic shock we have endured.
The reality is that the pandemic was not an intermission after which the play would resume unchanged. It was an accelerator, a disruptor, and a premeditated force that recalibrated the very foundations of our society. Its impact was holistic, reshaping politics, law, the economy, and social structures in ways we are only beginning to comprehend.
The Economic Mirage
The desire for a V-shaped recovery is understandable. Stimulus checks, pent-up demand, and a surge in travel created a powerful mirage of a roaring comeback. But beneath the surface of these headline figures lie deep structural fractures.
The pandemic rewired our economic DNA. It supercharged the shift to remote work, leaving city centers and commercial real estate grappling with a new, uncertain future. It exposed the brittle nature of global supply chains, forcing a painful rethink of just-in-time manufacturing. It widened the wealth gap, as white-collar professionals insulated themselves while service and frontline workers bore the brunt of the risk and instability. Millions left the workforce, triggering a labour market transformation that defies old models. These are not temporary blips; they are permanent features of our new landscape.
To believe the economy can simply “snap back” is to ignore these fundamental shifts. It’s like expecting a patient who has undergone major surgery to run a marathon the next day. The scars, both seen and unseen, take time to heal, and the body must learn to function in a new way.
Beyond the Balance Sheet: A Holistic Upheaval
To view Covid’s impact through a purely economic lens is to miss the point entirely. The virus was a catalyst that premeditated change across all aspects of human endeavour:
· Politics: It deepened polarization, with public health measures becoming political identity markers. Trust in institutions wavered under the strain of inconsistent messaging and policy.
· Law: It forced a rapid evolution in legal frameworks, from the enforcement of lockdowns and vaccine mandates to the establishment of remote court proceedings, setting new precedents for civil liberties and state power.
· The Social Fabric: Our mental health collectively frayed. Education was disrupted for a generation of children. We re-evaluated the nature of community, connection, and what we truly value in our lives.
The economy does not operate in a vacuum. It is a subsystem of this broader, more complex social and political ecosystem. When that entire ecosystem is shaken, the economy cannot emerge unscathed.
The Painful Road to a “New Normal”
Acknowledging that there will be pain is not pessimism; it is the first step toward resilience. The pain is already here, manifesting as inflation driven by supply shocks and stimulus hangovers, as labour strikes demanding a fairer share, and as the gnawing anxiety of a world that feels less secure.
The path forward requires a maturity we have yet to display. It demands that our leaders move beyond short-term electoral cycles and sugar-coated promises. We need honest conversations about the investments required to rebuild—not to what was, but to what can be. This means modernizing infrastructure, fortifying social safety nets, and developing strategies for a more resilient, equitable economy.
The global shutdown was a generational event. It is a fantasy to believe we can simply dust ourselves off and carry on as if nothing happened. The economy, like our society, has been fundamentally altered. The pain we feel is the growing pain of transformation. Only by accepting this reality can we begin the difficult, necessary work of building a future that is not a replica of the past, but a stronger, more conscious adaptation for the world that Covid has left us.
Centre for Nigeria Progress 