Sahel Regional Security Dynamics: A Multifaceted Analysis (as of late 2025–early 2026)

The modern Sahel crisis traces back to the 2011 Libyan collapse, which flooded the region with weapons and fighters, reigniting Tuareg rebellions in northern Mali in 2012. This enabled Islamist groups to seize territory, leading to French intervention (Operation Serval in 2013, later Barkhane). Initial gains were undermined by persistent weak governance: corruption, urban-rural divides, ethnic tensions (e.g., Fulani pastoralists vs. agricultural communities), and state absence in rural peripheries.