Zoning vs the Constitution: Nigeria’s Favourite Unwritten Law Meets Its Written One

Nigeria is a constitutional republic. That is the theory. In practice, it is also a federation held together by a delicate, unwritten gentleman’s agreement: “you chop, I chop next.” Lawyers call the first a constitution. Politicians call the second zoning. The confusion begins when both claim authority at the same time.

After eight years of northern presidency under Muhammadu Buhari, the pendulum swung southward, producing Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West. Four years in, he is entitled—constitutionally—to seek another term. Enter the familiar cast: Atiku Abubakar, perennial contender from the North, and Peter Obi, the insurgent candidate whose support cuts awkwardly across Nigeria’s traditional zoning arithmetic.

Now the question: can zoning survive contact with the cold, hard text of the constitution?

The Constitution: Cold, Impersonal, and Annoyingly Clear

The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 is not sentimental. It does not care about whose “turn” it is. It sets out who is qualified to run for president and leaves the rest to politics. It does not whisper about North or South, Muslim or Christian, or whose elders held meetings in smoky back rooms in Abuja.

Under it, Atiku can run. Obi can run. Tinubu can run again. In fact, the constitution would look rather puzzled if you tried to explain zoning to it. “Show me where I said that,” it would ask, flipping through its own provisions.

Zoning: Nigeria’s Favourite Legal Fiction

Zoning, on the other hand, is a political convention—an understanding that power should rotate to maintain national balance. It has no section number, no subsection, and certainly no enforcement mechanism beyond political sulking.

It thrives particularly within parties like the People’s Democratic Party, which periodically rediscovers zoning when it is convenient and misplaces it when it is not. The doctrine is invoked with moral outrage when violated and quietly shelved when ambition beckons.

When Atiku Meets Zoning

Atiku’s candidacy is the perfect stress test. After Buhari’s eight years (North), the zoning purists insist it is still the South’s turn—meaning Atiku should wait patiently, preferably forever or at least until it is no longer politically useful.

But here is the difficulty: the constitution does not recognise patience as a qualification for office. Nor does it impose a waiting list based on geography. Atiku’s legal right to contest is unimpeachable. His political wisdom in doing so is, of course, a different matter entirely.

When Obi Scrambles the Equation

Peter Obi complicates things further. He is southern, yes—but not from the “expected” South-West power bloc. His rise exposes zoning’s internal contradictions: it is not just about North vs South, but about which part of the South, which coalition, and whose turn within the turn.

In other words, zoning is less a principle and more a negotiation with too many moving parts and too few honest brokers.

Tinubu and the Incumbency Advantage

Tinubu, meanwhile, sits comfortably within both frameworks. Constitutionally, he can seek a second term. Politically, incumbency is its own zoning arrangement—one that says, “whoever holds power should try very hard not to lose it.”

Those arguing zoning must therefore answer a delicate question: does zoning override the informal but very powerful convention of second-term entitlement? Nigerian politics has historically answered: not really.

Law vs Convention: Who Wins?

When the dust settles, the hierarchy is straightforward:

• The constitution confers legal rights.
• Zoning imposes political expectations.

If the two collide, courts will enforce the former and politely ignore the latter. No judge will disqualify Atiku for being from the “wrong” region. No tribunal will invalidate Obi’s votes because he disrupted a rotational script. And certainly, no court will prevent Tinubu from running again because someone somewhere believes it is “unfair.”

Zoning has no remedy in law. Its only weapons are persuasion, pressure, and, occasionally, outrage dressed up as principle.

The Real Question: Do Nigerians Actually Believe in Zoning?

This is where things get awkward. Politicians invoke zoning as a stabilising doctrine. Voters, however, are increasingly transactional. If zoning were truly sacrosanct, it would not require this much argument every election cycle.

The truth is simpler: zoning is respected when it aligns with ambition and discarded when it does not.

Final Analysis

A constitutional republic can accommodate political conventions—but only as long as they do not pretend to be law.

Nigeria’s zoning arrangement is best understood as:

• a peace treaty, not a statute;
• a political convenience, not a constitutional command;
• a negotiation tool, not an enforceable right.

So when Atiku runs, Obi mobilises, and Tinubu seeks re-election, none of them is breaking the law. They are merely testing the elasticity of an unwritten rule that has always been more flexible than its defenders care to admit.

In the end, the constitution will remain what it has always been: supreme, silent on zoning, and slightly amused by the entire debate.