There are politicians who test the waters before making a move. They dip a cautious toe, consult three committees, and issue a statement about “ongoing stakeholder engagement.”
And then there is Bola Ahmed Tinubu—a man who does not test the waters. He dives in headfirst, drains the pool, privatizes the tiles, and then forms a committee to investigate why everyone is wet.
If governance were a casino, Tinubu wouldn’t just be placing bets—he’d be redesigning the table mid-game and asking the dealer to clap.
Economic Policy: Jump First, Announce Later
We’ve covered the greatest hits: subsidy removal on Day One (no rehearsal, no warning, just vibes), and a currency policy that occasionally behaves like it’s trying to escape the country without a visa.
Most leaders approach economic reform like a careful chess player.
Tinubu approaches it like speed chess… after two espressos… with the clock broken.
Opposition Parties: Now You See Them, Now You… Join Us
But where things get truly Olympic-level daring is not just in economic policy—it’s in the quiet, almost artistic, dismantling of opposition parties.
First came the internal turbulence in the People’s Democratic Party. A party that once strutted around like the landlord of Nigerian politics now looks like tenants arguing over rent in a building already sold.
Then the Labour Party—which briefly enjoyed its moment as the people’s megaphone—found itself entangled in leadership disputes so intricate they require a flowchart, a lawyer, and possibly a therapist.
And now, even the African Democratic Congress is not spared. At this rate, forming an opposition party in Nigeria should come with a disclaimer: “May contain traces of Tinubu.”
The remarkable thing is the consistency. The method appears less like brute force and more like political aikido—using internal contradictions, factionalism, and just the right amount of pressure to let parties unravel themselves.
It’s not a bulldozer. It’s termites. Very strategic termites.
Institutions: Schrödinger’s Independence
Then we arrive at the institutions—the referees of the democratic game.
The judiciary, ideally blind, sometimes appears to have developed a keen sense of timing. Decisions arrive late… except when they arrive early. And when they arrive early, they arrive very early—like a student who submits an exam before the question is fully read.
Meanwhile, Independent National Electoral Commission operates with a flexibility that would impress a yoga instructor. Deadlines stretch. Results pause. Processes evolve in real time.
One begins to suspect that “independence” in this context is less about separation and more about… creative interpretation.
Democracy, But Make It Experimental
Now, toying with opposition parties and institutions is not exactly new in politics. But there are levels to this.
Tinubu’s approach feels like a live experiment:
What happens if opposition parties are permanently distracted? What happens if institutions develop… situational efficiency? What happens if everyone is just slightly unsure what happens next?
The answer, historically, in many countries, has not always been pleasant. Such uncertainty has, in less patient environments, invited interruptions—some involving uniforms, boots, and a sudden national broadcast.
Nigeria, to its credit, has resisted that path. But the echoes are there, like a distant drumbeat everyone pretends not to hear.
The Grand Strategy: Chaos, But Curated
Is this accidental? Is it strategy? Is it simply the natural entropy of Nigerian politics accelerated by a very confident man?
With Tinubu, it’s hard to tell.
Because he operates on a frequency where:
crisis is opportunity, instability is leverage, and opposition is… a work in progress.
Conclusion: The House Always Wins
In the end, Tinubu governs like a man who believes the biggest risk is not taking one.
Opposition parties wobble. Institutions bend. Policies land with the subtlety of a drum solo.
And through it all, he remains at the center—calm, calculating, and occasionally smiling like a man who knows where all the levers are… even the ones nobody else can see.
Nigeria is not just watching governance.
It is watching a high-stakes political masterclass.
Or a very elaborate experiment.
The only question is whether, at the end of it all, the system will be stronger…
—or whether the house, as always, wins.
Centre for Nigeria Progress 