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Despite Nigeria's assessment, the emerging consensus was that Lakurawa was not a unified entity but rather an umbrella term, and that attacks attributed to the group were likely perpetrated by a mix of Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). JNIM, bandits. and potentially a separate new group operating under the label without claiming responsibility.
There was a time when Nigeria did not wait for foreign capitals to define West African security. From the anti-apartheid struggle in Southern Africa to military interventions in Liberia and Sierra Leone, Nigeria projected power, influence and diplomatic leadership. Whether one agreed with its methods or not, nobody doubted who was leading.
The modern Sahel crisis traces back to the 2011 Libyan collapse, which flooded the region with weapons and fighters, reigniting Tuareg rebellions in northern Mali in 2012. This enabled Islamist groups to seize territory, leading to French intervention (Operation Serval in 2013, later Barkhane). Initial gains were undermined by persistent weak governance: corruption, urban-rural divides, ethnic tensions (e.g., Fulani pastoralists vs. agricultural communities), and state absence in rural peripheries.
Centre for Nigeria Progress 